Now it stands at one-one. When will Ireland vote a third time?

“The people has spoken with a clear voice” declared the Irish prime minister Brian Cowen, when it was apparent that the yes-side had won the second round in the match between Ireland and the Lisbon Treaty. Last time in June 2008 after the Irish people spoke “with a clear voice” and rejected the treaty with 54.3 percent vote Brian Cowen asked his colleagues in the other 26 member states to give time to analyse why the people voted as they did.

Half a year later the Irish government had reached the conclusion that it was not (of course) the Lisbon Treaty per se people had rejected, but their “concerns” only dealt with the abortion issue, the tax and neutrality politics and that Ireland should lose “its” EU-commissioner.

At the European Council meeting last December the Heads of States agreed to use an emergency exist in the still not ratified treaty and promised that the Commission should be composed of one commissionaire per member country even after 2014. (But as nothing should be changed in the treaty this promise is only written in sand). In addition the Heads of States agreed to invent some form of “necessary legal guarantees” concerning the other “concerns” as these had been defined by the Irish government.

From January negotiations took place behind closed doors in Brussels. “It is difficult, the guarantees must be formulated in way that they will give security to the Irish but also convince the other member states that nothing will be changed in the treaty today or tomorrow”, declared the Swedish minister of European Affairs after consultation with the Consultation Board of the Swedish Parliament in June just before the Council meeting.

After some trouble initiated by Great Britain the Council meeting took a “decision” which implied that Ireland got “legal guarantees” concerning “taxation policy, the right to life, education and the family, and Ireland traditional policy of military neutrality”.

In essential these “legal guarantees” are nothing new. The intent was to “provide reassurance and respond to the concerns of the Irish people” as it was formulated in the decision. It was not a question to make any change in the Lisbon Treaty. “The legal guarantees are only valid for Ireland and will change nothing in the treaty per se” the current president of the EU Fredrik Reinfeldt told at a press conference in Brussels after the meeting.

The editorial of the Svenska Dagbladet (a conservative morning paper) wrote “EU cosmetic will win the Irish votes” when it was clear that the Irish should vote another time of “in principle the same thing”, and added “We guarantee that you will not be compelled to do what you anyway don’t need to do”.

Such empty words were enough for Brian Cowen to decide upon a second referendum. This time 67 percent voted as the Irish and European power elite requested. The yes win is indisputable (even if the methods used were dubious). Congratulations, Brian Cowen. Now it stands one-one in the match Ireland versus Lisbon Treaty.

Now we expect that the Irish government at the next European Council meeting in October once more will ask the governments in the 26 member states to get time to analyse why the Irish people voted as it did and that Brain Cowen soon will set up a parliamentarian committee with the task to single out to what the Irish voted yes. Can we be sure that the Irish voted yes to the treaty? And if so, why, as the Irish voted the exact same treaty as they earlier rejected?

The yes campaign before the second vote dealt with other problems than the Lisbon Treaty. None of the numerous posters the yes side political parties and their cover up organisations like “Ireland for Europe” and “Europe for Ireland” had posted in Dublin and around Ireland dealt with treaty. Instead the message was “Vote for jobs”, “Yes for the Economy”, “Vote for recovery” just to mention a few.

Under the headline “Thanks to the crisis” the editorial of Expressen (liberal evening paper) concludes: “If it had not been for the global financial situation and the serious economic situation the Irish may had kept its no”. Against this background it would be natural that the Irish government immediately makes a formal request to the next European Council to deliver “legal guarantees” to the Irish people so that the Lisbon Treaty will get rid of the unemployment and solve the economic crisis and then let the Irish people vote a third time.

Anything else would be a “democratic circus” (to borrow an appropriate editorial expression from the liberal morning paper Dagens Nyheter). We do not believe that it is only when the people vote against what the establishment requests that referendums are rerun.

Brian Cowen and Fredrik Reinfeldt: When will we see the third round in the match Ireland versus Lisbon Treaty?

Jan-Erik Gustafsson and Gösta Torstensson
People’s Movement No to the EU, Sweden