“There is nothing that actually indicates that Iceland will ever join the EU. The core arguments of the pro-EU movement are not based on telling the people that joining the EU would be good for Iceland – not anymore – but telling them that sooner or later Iceland will be forced to join,” writes Hjörtur J. Guðmundsson, founding member of the political organisation, Heimssýn.

In Iceland we are often told that Norway is on the way to join the European Union. We have actually been getting this message for a very long time now – for decades. At the same time we know that the people in Norway are regularly getting the message that Iceland will be joining the EU. In both cases, however, it is highly unlikely that either country will ever become a member of the EU inspite of the obvious wishful thinking of pro-EU people across Europe. In fact, there hasn’t been any serious EU debate in Iceland for years now, with the sole exception of the second half of 2002 and the beginning of 2003, when there was a short debate on the issue before the general elections in the spring of 2003. The result of this debate in the polls was a vast majority against EU membership and therefore the EU question was not raised at all during the election campaign.

Polls in Iceland

Opinion polls on the EU have a certain tendency in Iceland. When there is little or no debate on the issue they tend to show those in favour of EU membership leading by a few percentage points. However, once a serious debate starts – no matter how seldom this happens – and all the cards are placed on the table those opposed to the idea of joining the EU become a majority.

This was the case, for example, in the last EU poll in Iceland, published on September 1 by Gallup, where support for EU membership was a bit more than the opposition. After all, there is currently no EU debate in Iceland. In fact, we only have two polls a year on the issue, while polls in Norway are held on a monthly basis. In comparison, we have monthly polls on the support for Icelandic political parties.

According to the September 1 poll, the so-called crisis within the EU following the French and Dutch rejection of the proposed EU constitution, does not seem to have had much influence in Iceland, unlike in many other European countries. There seems to be only one logical explanation for this: as stated earlier, there has been no serious EU debate in Iceland for years, unlike in Norway where there is always some ongoing debate on the issue. As a result, what happens within the EU is more likely to affect the public opinion in Norway than in Iceland.

The question of whether Iceland should join the EU or not is obviously not high on the people’s list of concerns. What happens within the EU is simply something distant to the Icelandic people.

Only one pro-EU party

Although it must be considered highly unlikely that Norway will join the EU in the foreseeable future it is even less likely that Iceland will ever do so. In addition to the nature of EU polls in Iceland we do not have a pro-EU government or a pro-EU parliamentary majority. In fact, only one of the political parties is in favour of joining the EU, the Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin). But the party has never actually dared to put the issue on its agenda, since even if the issue is somewhat debated within the party, more importantly they lack the necessary political support of the Icelandic population.

All the other political parties in Iceland are opposed to EU membership, including the centrist Progressive Party (Framsóknarflokkurinn), although some people outside Iceland seem to think the party is pro-EU. That is, however, far from the truth. The chairman of the party, the current Prime Minister Halldór Ásgrímsson, is indeed pro-EU but the vice-chairman is not and the same goes for the vast majority of party members. This became very clear at the party’s biannual general meeting earlier this year when those in favour of joining the EU made several attempts to have membership placed on the party’s platform but where forced to withdraw every time. In addition, according to a Gallup poll most of the party’s voters are also opposed to EU membership.

No EU membership in 2007

It is as good as impossible that a future government in Iceland will place EU membership on the agenda. The current government, a coalition between the conservative Independence Party (Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn) and the Progressive Party, will not start any negotiations with the EU since both parties are not only opposed to EU membership, but have also an agreement that EU membership is not an issue. The next general elections in Iceland are scheduled for May 2007, but since all but one of the political parties are opposed to EU membership a pro-membership government is simply not a possibility.

Davíð Oddsson, former Prime Minister of Iceland and chairman of the Independence Party, decided to retire from Icelandic politics in September 2005 after being on the front line since 1974 in various offices, including that of PM between 1991 and 2004. The eurosceptic attitute of the Independence Party has probably been characterised in Oddsson by many outside Iceland. However, his decision to retire (which was expected) has not brought any changes to the policy of the party towards the EU. After all, opposition to EU membership is widespread within the Independence Party in all its ranks. For example there was no need for a debate over a continued eurosceptic policy at the party’s biannual general meeting in October 2005.

Why should we join?

But which are the most important issues to the Icelandic people when it comes to opposing EU membership? According to a Gallup poll these are the fisheries (the public opinion in Iceland is that we must hold full authority over our fisheries and our waters in case of EU membership), the loss of sovereignty that membership entails, and the negligible influence within the EU. Other issues include bureaucracy, overregulation and centralisation of EU power, lack of democracy, along with the constant political, economic and social integration. Moreover, Gallup polls have repeatedly shown a large majority against adopting the euro instead of the Icelandic króna.

So in short there is nothing that actually indicates that Iceland will ever join the EU. The core arguments of the pro-EU movement are not based on telling the people that joining the EU would be good for Iceland – not anymore – but telling them that sooner or later Iceland will be forced to join, especially ‘when Norway joins the EU’. But the fact is that neither country is likely to join the EU and it is not difficult to see why. According to various international research, both countries are doing great outside the EU and much better than most of the EU member states, and in some cases all of them. The 2005 United Nations report on living standards and wealth shows Iceland in second place after Norway. So why should both countries even consider joining the EU?

Hjörtur J. Guðmundsson hjortur@heimssyn.is